le SP&500 progresse 72% du temps entre l’Action de grâce américaine et le jour de l’an depuis 1945

Publie le 25 novembre 2010

Comme c’est souvent le cas lorsque les Américains prennent congé, les investisseurs canadiens se sont tenus loin des coups d’éclat. La Bourse de Toronto a connu une légère progression aujourd’hui, notamment grâce à la vigueur du pétrole.

Le retour du congé de l’Action de grâce américaine pourrait être une bonne occasion pour les investisseurs de s’enrichir. Selon Birninyi Associates, le SP&500 progresse 72% du temps entre l’Action de grâce américaine et le jour de l’an depuis 1945. Ce gain est de 1,92% en moyenne.

À la fermeture, le S&P/TSX a grimpé d’un respectable 48,32 points, ou 0,34%, à 12 945 points.

L’or s’est apprécié 1,40 $US, soit 0,10%, pour s’établir à 1 374 $US. Le pétrole a grimpé de 32 cents américains à 84,18 $US, un gain de 0,38%.

À 16h30, le dollar canadien atteint 99,12 cents américains.

Et en date du 26 novembre 2010

S&P 500 : 1,189.40 Down 8.95 (0.75%)
S&P/TSX Composite index (Official) : 12,892.71 -53.10 (-0.41%)

Google's Android an iPhone Killer?

Publié le 3 aout 2010
(http://moneymorning.com/2010/08/05/android/)

The struggle for dominance in the smartphone market is heating up and Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android operating system for handsets appears to be winning the war against Apple Inc.'s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone system.

When Apple debuted the iPhone 4 on June 24 it broke sales records. In the first three days, the company sold 1.7 million devices in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Germany, the most for any version of its top-selling product.

But the popular device has been plagued by misfortune - including the suicide of a Chinese worker, lost prototypes, reception problems, and an inauspicious introduction to the press and public when Chief Executive Steve Jobs could not get the phone to connect to the Internet.

Now comes word that the innovative iPhone and its operating system software package, known as iOS, has been knocked from its lofty perch among U.S. technophobes by Google's Android handset software.

Android had 27% of the U.S. market in the second quarter among new U.S. smartphone users, compared with 23% for iOS, market research firm Nielsen Co. said on its website Tuesday.

And while the iPhone retained a higher share than Android among existing smartphone users in the United States, when you look at global sales, the news just gets worse for Apple.

Android Sales Soar
The global smart phone market grew by 64% annually in the second quarter of 2010, according to Canalys, a provider of market analysis for the hi-tech marketplace.

Nokia Corp. (NYSE ADR: NOK) retained a substantial lead in the worldwide smart phone market, achieving a 38% market share, shipping a record 23.8 million smart phones based on the Symbian operating system during the quarter. At the same time, shipments of Research In Motion Ltd.'s (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry smart phones grew by 41%.

But the two big players' lost some of their market dominance, as their performance was outpaced by growth in the smart phone market as a whole. And the reason is clear: the market is under attack from Android.

Market Maneuvers With key products from HTC Corp., Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), Samsung Electronics, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (Nasdaq ADR: ERIC) and LG Electronics giving new smartphone purchasers more options, shipments of smart phones running the Android operating system have soared.

In fact, even though the original Droid didn't hit the market until November 2008, second quarter sales were up a whopping 886% year-over-year.

"There's a massive hunger for smartphones, and the Android universe came out not just with one blockbuster device but with a whole series of blockbuster devices," Roger Entner, head of telecom research at Nielsen, said in an interview with Bloomberg News.

And in the United States, the largest smart phone market in the world by a significant margin with 14.7 million units accounting for 23% of global shipments, Android devices collectively chalked up growth of 851%, according to Canalys.

Android is also flourishing in China, the world's second largest smart phone market with shipments of 6.9 million units representing 11% of the worldwide total. Some 475,000 Android devices were sold in the second quarter, from no presence in the country a year earlier.

"The story in the Asia Pacific region is similarly optimistic around Android," Canalys Senior Analyst, TY Lau wrote in a research report. "Android devices are gaining good traction in markets such as mainland China and South Korea, with growing numbers of consumers wanting more sophisticated smart phones."

Missteps Haunt iPhone 4
Apple has released an updated version of the iPhone each year since the first model made its debut, including the iPhone 3G in 2008, and the speedier iPhone 3GS in 2009. The iPhone was Apple's biggest moneymaker last quarter, outselling the Macintosh computer and accounting for 40% of sales.

But Apple, which has built its brand on delivering cool, meticulously crafted designs, was plagued by bad luck during the development of the iPhone 4. Moreover, it's been shooting itself in the foot at almost every juncture since it released the device to the market.

On July 16, 2009, a 25-year-old Chinese factory worker leaped from the window of his apartment building and fell 12 stories to his death. He had been accused by his superiors of losing an iPhone 4 prototype.

Months after the incident in China, an Apple engineer out drinking at a pub in Silicon Valley lost track of the iPhone 4 prototype he was testing. It was subsequently sold to a technology blog that dismantled it.

Then, when Steve Jobs introduced the new phone in front of a huge audience of reporters and Apple developers, it failed to connect to the Internet.

And since the phone's release, it's been plagued by reception problems, even though one of its top engineers warned the company that the antenna design might lead to dropped signals and customer dissatisfaction.

Apple then committed a series of public relations gaffes by placing blame on everyone but itself. The lack of sensitivity has alienated customers and irritated its competitors and critics.

Apple's handling of the antenna revelations has been "uncharacteristically sloppy," Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities told the Los Angeles Times. "And [it shows] maybe even how little they really understood the depth or breadth of the problem."

The company's work-in-progress response "points out how much they were caught off guard by this," Hargreaves said.

Apple initially recommended that users avoid holding the phone in a way that could affect the antenna's performance. The company also said that a software error, dating to the June 2007 release of the first iPhone, has resulted in overstated signal strength, leading users to believe they had better reception than they did.

In defending the iPhone, Jobs showed videos of the BlackBerry Bold 9700, the HTC Droid Eris and the Samsung Omnia II losing signal strength when held in certain ways. And he offered free rubber cases, called bumpers, to all customers who bought or will buy the iPhone 4 by the end of September.

Still, Consumer Reports said it won't recommend the iPhone 4 following tests confirming the handset has a hardware shortcoming that causes signal quality to degrade. The publication had recommended the three previous iPhone models.

User Restrictions Could Hamper Future Sales
Buying an iPhone isn't the same as buying a car or a toaster. The iPhone comes with a complicated list of rules about what users can and can't do with it.

Apple products are heavily infested with Digital Restrictions Management (DRM) that prevents users from installing unapproved third-party applications.

iPhone owners can't unlock it and use it with the cell phone carrier of their choice - they are exclusively married to AT&T as the airtime provider. And Apple is unapologetic about these rules: A software update released in September 2007 erased unauthorized software and rendered hundreds of unlocked phones unusable.

Some iPhone owners have rebelled.

According to Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., the top-ranked computer analyst by Institutional Investor magazine, users may have unlocked as many as 1 million handsets to run on unauthorized wireless networks, costing Apple between $300 million and $400 million in revenue.

Whether it's bad luck or bad management, surging Android sales represent a real threat to Apple's future, as Android dealers gear up to sell even more of the devices.

Handsets such as the Motorola's Droid and Droid Eris, which is sold through Verizon Wireless, the largest U.S. mobile-phone service provider, have been especially strong.

"Prior to launch of Droid, there had not been a lot of modern, touch-optimized smart phones available at Verizon," NPD analyst Ross Rubin told MarketWatch. Rubin added that the majority of smart-phone sales at a carrier typically come from customers who are already signed up to that carrier.

Verizon is expected to put heavy promotion behind the latest Android device - the Droid Incredible from HTC - for the next several months.

The latest data has also put pressure on Apple to expand its base of carriers for the iPhone. The device is still exclusive to AT&T in the U.S. market, with recent reports that it will expand to Verizon in January 2011.

Apple's European partners include Vodafone Group PLC, France Telecom SA (NYSE ADR: FTE) and Deutsche Telekom AG (PINK: DTEGY). Softbank Corp. carries the iPhone 4 in Japan

Android's startling success may mean Google will overtake Apple's iOS globally earlier than previously expected, Will Stofega, program director at research firm Interactive Data Corp. (NYSE: IDC) in Framingham, Massachusetts told Bloomberg. Earlier this year, IDC said it expected Android to overtake iOS globally in 2011.

"It could happen sooner," Stofega said.

Verizon iPhone Will Help Apple Compete

Publié le 25 novembre 2010
(http://seekingalpha.com/article/238693-verizon-iphone-will-help-apple-compete?source=article_sb_popular_10)

by Don Miller

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) will escalate the war for smartphone dominance in early 2011 by releasing a new version of its iPhone to run on the popular Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) network, the biggest U.S. carrier by subscribers.

However, the phone won't make it out in time for the Christmas season, as many had hoped.

Apple will be ramping up to mass produce the new touchscreen handset by the end of 2010 and release it in the first quarter of 2011, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. While the phone would be similar to the iPhone 4 sold by its current carrier, AT&T (NYSE: T), it would be based on an alternative wireless technology used by Verizon, the people said.

The Verizon iPhone will mark the end of AT&T's agreement with Apple that gave the telecommunications giant exclusive rights to market and sell the handset since 2007, when Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs introduced the original iPhone.

Verizon has been testing its networks and capacity to handle the heavy data load by iPhone users, seeking to avoid the kind of bad publicity that plagued AT&T after booming sales of data-hungry iPhones crippled its network.

AT&T's iPhone customers have complained endlessly about dropped calls and poor service, especially in the user-heavy cities of New York and San Francisco.

Verizon's network is untested in terms of whether it can withstand millions of iPhone users, but studies by Consumer Reports and others have concluded Verizon has a better network than AT&T, The Journal reported.

By making the iPhone available to Verizon customers, Apple is striving to fend off an assault on its business from several fronts. The move is expected to help the iPhone compete in its battle with Google Inc.'s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android software, which has made significant inroads on Apple's market share.

The innovative iPhone and its operating system software package, known as iOS, was knocked from its lofty perch among U.S. technophobes by Google's Android handset software in the second quarter of this year.

While Apple is on track to sell 40 million iPhones across the globe this year, it is under pressure in the United States from Android. Android handsets, which have been heavily promoted by Verizon, had 27% of the U.S. market in the second quarter among new U.S. smartphone users, compared with 23% for iOS, market research firm Nielsen Co. said on its website.

Android's startling success may mean Google will overtake Apple's iOS globally earlier than previously expected, Will Stofega, program director at research firm International Data Corp. (NYSE: IDC) in Framingham, Massachusetts told Bloomberg. Earlier this year, IDC said it expected Android to overtake iOS globally in 2011.

And in its boldest move yet to return to prominence in the mobile business, Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), recently unveiled a lineup of smartphones that use its revamped Windows Phone 7 mobile-operating system.

The software giant spent two years developing the new operating system as the centerpiece of its assault on the crowded smartphone market, where it has struggled to gain a foothold.

Still, the iPhone may get a significant boost from Verizon's customers, according to analysts and polls.

Many Verizon customers have been clamoring for the iPhone for years, and iPhone lovers in New York - a Verizon stronghold - were thrilled by the news.

"I love the iPhone, but AT&T's coverage is terrible compared to Verizon," Victoria Tlot, a St. John's University student told The New York Daily News. "If Verizon comes out with the iPhone, I'm going to switch."

Verizon could add more than 10 million U.S. iPhone customers, Toni Sacconaghi, a Sanford Bernstein analyst, told The Journal. And a poll by ChangeWave, which surveyed 1,212 new smartphone owners, showed that 34% of consumers would have opted for an iPhone instead of a different smartphone had it been available through their carrier.

"The results show the continuing threat the iPhone poses to the rest of the industry," said ChangeWave Vice President of Research Paul Carton.

Separately, Apple is developing a new, fifth-generation iPhone model, anonymous sources told The Journal. It was unclear how soon that version would be available to Verizon or other carriers.

Original Post

Disclosure: No positions

Disclaimer: Money Morning and Stansberry & Associates Investment Research are separate companies, and entirely distinct. Their only common thread is a shared parent company, Agora Inc. Agora Inc. was named in the suit by the SEC and was exonerated by the court, and thus dropped from the case. Stansberry & Associates was found civilly liable for a matter that dealt with one writer’s report on a company. The action was not a criminal matter. The case is still on appeal, and no final decision has been made.

Equities weak to begin week - A 5% drop in shares of Manulife Financial Corp

Publie le 22 novembre 2010
(http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/22112010/61/equities-weak-begin-week.html)

A 5% drop in shares of Manulife Financial Corp also weighed on financials after Citigroup downgraded the insurance giant's rating to "sell", due to a weak outlook for its U.S. operations and the risk of dilution in any further equity raising required to pay down its debt.

Manulife shares fell 71 cents to $14.64 in morning trading.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

UPDATE 1-Citigroup downgrades Manulife to sell-- by Thomson Reuters

* Cuts price target to C$15 from C$22

* Bullish on Asian franchise, skeptical on US

Nov 22 (Reuters) - Citigroup downgraded Manulife Financial Corp by two notches to "sell," citing weak outlook for its U.S. operation and the risk of dilution from further equity issuance.

Canada's largest insurer, which owns U.S.-based John Hancock, has a high level of uncertainty around future earnings progression and capitalization, Citigroup said.

"While we remain very bullish about the Asian franchise with its above average growth potential and continue to expect solid sustainable gains from the domestic Canadian business, the outlook for the U.S. John Hancock operations is a very different matter," the brokerage said in a note to clients.

The brokerage expressed confidence in Manulife's new CEO Don Guloien, but said the pace of the turnaround and the final outcome in terms of return on equity has considerable risks.

On Nov. 4, Manulife reported a fivefold increase in its third-quarter loss due to C$3 billion in charges and a writedown, but the company's shares rose 10 percent as the loss was not as big as expected.

The Toronto-based company's shares were trading down 3 percent at C$14.87 on Monday on the Toronto Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Aftab Ahmed in Bangalore; Editing by Don Sebastian) (aftab.ahmed@thomsonreuters.com; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780; outside U.S. +91 80 4135 5800; Reuters Messaging: aftab.ahmed.reuters.com@reuters.net))

GM Stock Slips on Second Day of Trading

Publie le 19 novembre 2010
(http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/11/19/business/AP-US-GM-Stock.html?src=busln)

DETROIT (AP) — General Motors' stock fell the second day it traded, although it stayed above its initial price Thursday of $33.

GM's stock dipped as low as $33.11 early Friday, more than 3 percent below Thursday's closing price, before climbing back to $33.95 at midday.

Investors and the U.S. government are watching how the market views GM. The company's stock went public Thursday amid an impressive turnaround 16 months after exiting bankruptcy protection.

The second-day stock dip isn't surprising, although a drop below the IPO price could spell trouble because it would trigger computerized "stop loss" orders to sell millions of shares, said Scott Sweet, senior managing partner of the research firm IPO Boutique. He expects volatility for three or four days before the shares stabilize.

The stock jumped as high as $35.99 in its market debut before pulling back later on Thursday. Almost 457 million GM shares traded, about one tenth of all trading on the New York Stock Exchange. GM closed up 3.6 percent at $34.19.

The government is on its way to getting back at least part of the $50 billion it spent bailing out GM, which left bankruptcy protection last year with a balance sheet cleansed of its huge debt.

The government and GM's other owners sold 478 million common shares in the IPO for $33 each, bringing in $15.8 billion.

The government made $11.8 billion in the IPO by selling 358 million shares, reducing its ownership stake about 36 percent from 61 percent. It stands to make $13.6 billion — and lower its stake to 33 percent — if bankers exercise options for 54 million more shares. If the options are taken, the government will have 500 million shares left, and they must sell for $53 each in order to get all the bailout money back.

The bankers have 30 days to exercise their options, and if they do, it would add 72 million shares to the number now on the market, bringing the total to 550 million.

Sweet doesn't think uncertainty over the options is weighing on GM's stock price because investors know that banks are likely to buy and resell the additional shares.

Banks may be buying shares on the open market to keep the stock price from falling below $33, said Matt Therian, a research analyst for Renaissance Capital, which tracks IPOs.

A leaner GM earned $4.2 billion in the first nine months of this year, and its chief financial officer said it could post huge pretax profits if the U.S. auto market recovers to pre-recession highs.

4G May Cost More, Says Verizon

Publie le 18 novembre 2010
(http://www.nytimes.com/external/readwriteweb/2010/11/18/18readwriteweb-4g-may-cost-more-says-verizon-51355.html?ref=technology)

Verizon is considering adjusting its data plan pricing as it prepares to launch its next-generation 4G wireless network. Not only will the network price data plans based on the amount of data consumed, it may also price data plans based on the speed of the connection itself.

"If you want to pay for less speed, you'll pay for less speed and consume more, or you can pay for high speed and consume less," Verizon CFO Fran Shammo told The Wall Street Journal in an interview, explaining the possibilities offered by the new pricing.



Verizon's 4G network is set to debut in 38 cities around the United States by year-end offering speeds between one and 12 megabits per second of data. (It's not true 4G, which would require downloads of 100 Mbps). However, the actual pricing for the new higher-speed connection is still not yet

More Tiered Pricing

Currently, Verizon is testing a low-end $15 per month promotional pricing plan which will be offered through the end of December. The plan provides 200 megabytes of data, limiting the number of downloads, emails and Web-enabled apps customers can access.

And as the company rolls out its 4G network, it plans to move further into tiered pricing in order to give its customers more options of how much (or little) they want to pay. This doesn't necessarily spell the end of Verizon's unlimited data plans though, Seidenberg said. "We need to get into it, figure out what the customer thinks is fair, and go from there," Seidenberg explained in a WSJ interview.

LTE Devices on Their Way

He also said that Verizon will introduce a number of new devices supporting the LTE technology at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, but would not comment on whether or not any of the new devices would include a Verizon iPhone. "If the iPhone comes to us, it's because Apple thinks it's time," he said. Seidenberg also mentioned that Verizon's LTE network has drawn Apple's interest and helped the company get the iPad on its network.

Verizon thinks its 4G network will lead to an explosion of data consumption on mobile devices, and, by 2016 or 2017, estimates that 30% of its customers will use a GB of data per month. That's a more conservative estimate than independent wireless analyst Chetan Sharma predicted earlier this year. He said that the average customer will consume 4 GB of data per month within three years. It seems tiered pricing functions as a roadblock, attempting to slow down the level of data consumption we would otherwise see.

There are arguments both for and against tiered pricing plans. On the one hand, tiered plans allow for more low-end options through the introduction of data caps. That means people who couldn't have otherwise afforded it, now have the ability to own a smartphone. However, consumers don't have a clear grasp of what a megabit, megabyte or gigabyte of data is nor how much data is associated with using a particular function -like a download, using an app, surfing the Web or checking email. One could easily argue that they shouldn't have to know the difference - the carriers should simply offer affordable unlimited plans as anything else will hamper real-world adoption of smartphones and their capabilities. In other words, if you don't know how much data you use, you'll always be worried about going over and being charged. The easiest solution is to not use data much at all.

At least the option to pay for 4G would be clearer: pay more for faster speed or don't.

GM roars back to public market, stock above IPO price in early trading

Publie le 18 novembre 2010
(http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/101118/business/us_gm_ipo

By The Canadian Press, The Associated Press
ADVERTISEMENT

General Motors returned to life as a public company Thursday with its shares quickly rising above the IPO price in early trading on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges.

In New York, the shares (NYSE:GM) traded at US$35.39 and in Toronto (TSX:GMM.U) were at US$35.45 within the first hour of trading Thursday.

GM set a price of US$33 per common share on Wednesday, at the high end of a range that had already been increased once due to early investor demand for the shares.

The U.S. government, the Canadian federal and Ontario governments and other owners will raise a total of US$18.2 billion by selling at the IPO price. GM will raise another US$5 billion by selling 100 million preferred shares at US$50 each.

The U.S. Treasury is unloading more than 400 million shares of GM, reducing its stake in the company from 61 per cent to about 33 per cent. The stock sold through the IPO would be worth about US$13.6 billion.

Canada's federal and Ontario governments have owned a combined 11.67 per cent of General Motors since last year's bailout of the automaker. They're reducing that stake to below 10 per cent by selling about 35 million shares through the IPO.

Canadian Industry Minister Tony Clement and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty have said they're in no hurry to sell more GM shares at this time, since they've been advised that the stock may be worth more in future.

Kevin Williams, who was appointed to head GM's Canadian subsidiary in March, said the company recognizes the opportunity that people in both countries have given General Motors and the need to prove itself.

"General Motors is a much leaner, much faster organization," Williams in an interview with BNN, a specialty business cable channel.

"We've looked at every part of the business and restructured it for success. We've driven our cost structure to the lowest point in a very long time and we've put the company in position for sustainable growth going forward."

"We are absolutely thrilled that the U.S. and Canadian government has given us an opportunity, along with the people of Canada and the U.S., and we believe it's our mission to demonstrate the value for those shareholders."

The head of GM Canada's largest union, CAW national president Ken Lewenza, said Thursday he supports the idea of having a continuing government role in the auto sector.

"We would encourage the Canadian government to take their time," Lewenza told BNN.

"In fact, we would encourage the Canadian government to do what other countries are doing, like in China and Korea, and have some stake in the automobile industry."

AT&T to Charge More for Samsung IPad Rival Than Verizon, Sprint

Publie le 15 novembre 2010
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-15/at-t-to-introduce-samsung-galaxy-tab-on-nov-21-for-649-99.html)

AT&T Inc. will sell Samsung Electronics Co.’s tablet computer for $649.99, or $50 more than Verizon Wireless and $150 more than Sprint Nextel Corp., which requires a two-year service contract to get its lowest price.

AT&T, the second-largest U.S. wireless company, will begin selling the Galaxy Tab on Nov. 21, at least a week later than Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile USA. Steve Schwadron, a spokesman, said AT&T is not offering a subsidy on the device.

“We have the largest Wi-Fi network and at no additional charge the customers and plan subscribers get access,” said Schwadron, in an interview. “We’re giving our customers a lot of choice.”

Customers who buy Samsung’s tablet from AT&T can access the Internet either through AT&T’s mobile-phone network for a monthly fee or via Wi-Fi service, which is often free.

AT&T, based in Dallas, is the exclusive U.S. wireless carrier for Apple Inc.’s iPhone and the only provider that lets owners of Apple’s iPad connect directly to its mobile-phone network. Samsung’s Galaxy Tab is designed to compete with the iPad, which held 95 percent of the tablet computer market in the third quarter, according to research firm Strategy Analytics.

T-Mobile, a unit of Deutsche Telekom AG, and Sprint have already started selling the Galaxy Tab for as little as $399.99 if customers sign a contract for two years of wireless service. The device, which features a 7-inch touch screen, went on sale at Verizon Wireless on Nov. 11 for $599.99.

AT&T gained 33 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $28.79 at 2:44 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares had added 1.5 percent this year before today.

GM pourrait hausser le prix de départ de ses actions

Publié le 15 novembre 2010
(http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/economie/automobile/201011/15/01-4342912-gm-pourrait-hausser-le-prix-de-depart-de-ses-actions.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_BO4_la_2343_accueil_POS4

General Motors pourrait augmenter la valeur de son appel public à l'épargne prévu pour jeudi, a indiqué à l'Associated Press une source bien au fait du dossier.

D'après cette personne, aucune décision n'a encore été prise mais la demande pour le titre pourrait justifier une hausse.

Le constructeur automobile a annoncé plus tôt ce mois-ci qu'il demanderait entre 26 $ US et 29 $US pour chacune de ses actions ordinaires et 50 $ US pour ses actions privilégiées.

Les propriétaires de GM, parmi lesquels figurent les gouvernements des États-Unis, du Canada et de l'Ontario, ont prévu se départir jeudi d'un total de 365 millions d'actions ordinaires dans le cadre de l'appel public à l'épargne de cette semaine.

Pour sa part, la société mettra en circulation 60 millions d'actions privilégiées.

Le ministre des Finances de l'Ontario, Dwight Duncan, a précisé qu'Ottawa et Queen's Park écouleraient quelque 30 millions d'actions du géant de Detroit.

Le titre de GM convoité

Publie le 12 novembre 2010
(http://argent.canoe.ca/lca/affaires/international/archives/2010/11/20101112-170545.html

General Motors reçoit encore de nouvelles commandes d'investisseurs intéressés par l'introduction en Bourse du constructeur américain, qui devrait laisser le livre d'ordres ouvert jusqu'au début de la semaine prochaine, ont dit vendredi trois sources proches du dossier.
Photo: Reuters

Le prix de l'opération devrait être fixé dans le haut de la fourchette, ont ajouté deux de ces sources.

La demande pour des actions ordinaires de GM représente actuellement quelque 60 milliards de dollars et continue d'augmenter, ont poursuivi les sources.

Dans le prospectus d'introduction en bourse déposé le 3 novembre auprès de la Securities & Exchanges Commission (SEC), GM avait précisé son intention de vendre 365 millions d'actions ordinaires à un prix compris entre 26 et 29 dollars, ce qui représente une opération de plus de 10 milliards de dollars.

Au niveau actuel de la demande, l'IPO du constructeur, qui fait son retour en Bourse plus d'un an après être sorti du régime des faillites où il avait passé quelques mois au plus fort de la crise automobile, est donc surévaluée six fois.

En plus des actions ordinaires, GM prévoit également de placer autour de trois milliards de dollars d'actions préférentielles convertibles en titres ordinaires.

Le grand public devrait se voir octroyer environ 20 % des titres vendus lors de l'opération, ont encore dit les sources, précisant que la demande en provenance des particuliers était actuellement de deux à trois milliards de dollars.

Banque Royale (RY, 56,81$) : sortie de l’assurance-vie aux États-Unis

Publie le 25 octobre 2010
(http://www.lesaffaires.com/blogues/francois-pouliot/titres-a-surveiller-shaw-communications-la-banque-royale-et-cineplex-galaxy/519746/2

Banque Royale (RY, 56,20$) : acquisition d’un gestionnaire en croissance grand V

BMO Marchés des capitaux renouvelle une recommandation « performance de marché ».

L’institution annonce l’acquisition de BlueBay Asset Management, un gestionnaire de revenus fixes de Grande Bretagne.

John Reucassel indique que la banque paie 18 fois le bénéfice par action anticipé pour 2011 et 15 fois celui anticipé en 2012. Sur une base BAIIA (bénéfice avant intérêts, impôt et amortissement), elle paie 13 fois le bénéfice 2011 et 10 fois le bénéfice 2012.

L’analyste estime que la banque paie dans la haute fourchette des prix offerts pour un gestionnaire d’actifs institutionnels. Il note cependant que la haute évaluation reflète la croissance phénoménale des actifs sous gestion de BlueBay. Ceux-ci ont cru à un rythme annuel composé de 64% depuis cinq ans.

Une telle croissance est nettement insoutenable, mais la direction croit qu’elle peut encore lui donner un élan intéressant en utilisant le réseau de distribution de RBC.

M. Reucassel indique que la transaction est positive et au pire neutre. Il ne voit pas d’ajout au bénéfice avant 12 à 18 mois.

La cible est à 56$.

Valeurs mobilières Desjardins réitère une recommandation d’achat.

La banque annonce la vente de Liberty Life, sa filiale d’assurance-vie aux États-Unis, à Athene Holding. La transaction de 628 M$ résultera en une perte de 115 M$ (0,10$ par action).

Michael Goldberg estime que la division américaine était un actif improductif, dont la contribution aux bénéfices a été sans impact depuis des années.

L’analyste ne perçoit cependant pas le retrait de l’assurance-vie comme une indication que l’institution s’apprête aussi à se retirer des activités bancaires chez l’Oncle Sam. Au contraire, il croit que la banque pourrait utiliser l’argent reçu pour donner de l’expansion à ses activités là-bas sur un horizon plus ou moins lointain.

La cible est à 57$.

Les craintes d'un resserrement en Chine font trébucher Wall Street

Publie le 12 novembre 2010
(http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/bourse/201011/12/01-4342026-les-craintes-dun-resserrement-en-chine-font-trebucher-wall-street.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=lapresseaffaires_LA5_nouvelles_98718_accueil_POS11

«La baisse du marché boursier chinois est probablement un événement en mesure de dégriser certains courtiers aux États-Unis qui ont surfé sur la vague de l'assouplissement quantitatif depuis fin août avec peu d'égards pour les risques de correction», a observé Patrick O'Hare, de Briefing.com.

La Bourse de New York a fini en baisse vendredi, sur un marché inquiet d'un possible resserrement monétaire en Chine et alors que la Réserve fédérale a lancé son programme de rachat d'obligations: le Dow Jones a perdu 0,80% et le Nasdaq 1,46%.

Selon des chiffres définitifs de clôture, le Dow Jones Industrial Average a cédé 90,52 points à 11 192,58 points et le Nasdaq, à dominante technologique, 37,31 points à 2518,21 points.

L'indice élargi Standard & Poor's 500 a reculé de son côté de 1,18% (14,33 points) à 1199,21 points.

Les indices sont tombés dans le rouge dès l'ouverture, alors que le marché s'inquiétait, à l'image des places asiatiques et européennes, d'un éventuel resserrement de politique monétaire en Chine après la publication de chiffres de l'inflation élevés.

Une attente qui pourrait se concrétiser au cours du week-end selon les rumeurs circulant dans les salles de courtage, a rapporté Marc Pado, de Cantor Fitzgerald.

Le secteur de l'énergie a été l'un des plus attaqués à Wall Street, de crainte d'un ralentissement de l'économie chinoise, moteur de la demande. Les valeurs bancaires ont aussi peiné face aux inquiétudes continuant de peser sur le problème des dettes souveraines en zone euro, principalement en Irlande.

«Le marché focalise son attention sur l'étranger alors que l'actualité économique locale est moindre. Ce sont vraiment des questions de macroéconomie mondiale avec l'Europe, la Chine, et le G20 qui ne semble pas générer beaucoup de retours positifs», a observé Andrew Fitzpatrick, de Hinsdale Securities.

En deuxième partie de séance, c'est une question propre au marché américain qui a pris le relais en terme d'influence négative. La Réserve fédérale a lancé son nouveau programme de rachats de bons du Trésor, mais cela ne s'est pas traduit par une chute des taux.

Au contraire, les rendements se sont tendus, du bon à échéance deux mois à celui à échéance 10 ans, alors que les investisseurs, qui avaient largement intégré l'action de la Fed, ont vendu à l'annonce concrète. Sur le marché obligataire, les prix évoluent à l'inverse des rendements. Celui du bon du Trésor à 10 ans s'est tendu à 2,729% contre 2,648% mercredi soir, et celui du bon à 30 ans à 4,246% contre 4,237%, après une journée fériée.


À Toronto

La Bourse de Toronto a culbuté, vendredi, et les craintes que le gouvernement chinois soit forcé de prendre d'autres mesures pour ralentir la croissance de son économie ont fait reculer les prix des matières premières.

L'indice composé du S&P/TSX a chuté de 185,5 points ou 1,43%, à 12 749,24 points, tandis que des prix des matières premières à la baisse ont contribué à la retraite du dollar canadien de 0,9 cent, à 99,1 cents US.

Y a-t-il une bulle boursière dans les pays émergents ?

Publie le 13 novembre 2010
(http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/finances-personnelles/plus-value/201011/12/01-4342190-y-a-t-il-une-bulle-boursiere-dans-les-pays-emergents-.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_BO4_la_2343_accueil_POS3)

Les Bourses ont le coeur à la fête depuis que la Réserve fédérale américaine a annoncé qu'elle ressortait la planche à billets. Avec autant de liquidités, les investisseurs se réveilleront-ils avec des maux de tête? Pour éviter un douloureux lendemain de veille, certains pays, comme la Chine, ont déjà dressé des barrières contre les flots de capitaux étrangers.

Les marchés boursiers ont le coeur à la fête depuis que les États-Unis ont annoncé qu'ils ressortaient la planche à imprimer des billets de banque.

«Ça pousse les investisseurs, qui voient les taux d'intérêt si bas, vers des marchés et des actifs plus risqués. Depuis deux mois, on voit monter les matières premières, l'or, les Bourses, en particulier celles des pays émergents», constate Jean-Pierre Couture, économiste et spécialiste des pays émergents chez Hexavest, une société montréalaise qui gère 4,6 milliards en actions étrangères.

En effet, pour repartir leur économie, les Américains vont injecter 600 milliards de dollars US de liquidités, en achetant des obligations américaines. Cela fait baisser les taux d'intérêt à long terme (10 ans) qui servent de point de repère pour les taux hypothécaires, donnant ainsi un répit aux ménages américains. L'opération a aussi fait fléchir le dollar américain, procurant un avantage concurrentiel aux exportateurs américains.

Ailleurs dans le monde, la manoeuvre de «dévaluation concurrentielle» de la devise américaine a fait rugir les pays comme le Brésil, dont la devise s'est déjà considérablement appréciée, ce qui nuit à ses exportations. Cette guerre des devises a d'ailleurs été coeur des pourparlers du sommet du G20 qui s'est tenu cette semaine à Séoul, en Corée.

Si certains pays ont peur que leur croissance économique ne soit étouffée par l'appréciation subite de leur devise, d'autres pays émergents qui ont un taux de change fixe, comme la Chine, ont le problème inverse. Submergés par l'afflux de capitaux étrangers, ils craignent la surchauffe économique.

Alors que les Américains ont peur de la déflation, les Chinois, eux, se battent contre l'inflation. Là-bas, le ton est complètement différent, comme en témoignent les coupures de journaux amassées par le stratège du géant français PNB Paribas, William De Vijlder, lors d'un récent séjour en Chine.

«Dépêchez-vous de réserver vos vacances de Noël», car les voyages de Hong-Kong vers l'Europe, l'Égypte et Dubaï sont déjà complets depuis octobre.

«Les ventes de Lamborghini montent en flèche», avec une augmentation de 200% par rapport à l'an dernier.

«Le pays resserre les règles pour les prêts hypothécaires», dans une troisième tentative de freiner la spéculation dans l'immobilier résidentiel.

Faut-il voir dans tout cela un signe de la vigueur économique de la Chine? Doit-on plutôt craindre qu'une bulle spéculative se forme dans les marchés émergents? Les investisseurs devraient-ils se méfier?

M. Couture est de ceux qui croient que le pôle de croissance de l'économie mondiale s'est déplacé de façon durable vers les pays émergents. «Mais les marchés ont des attentes trop élevées, dit-il. On risque de voir une correction. Présentement, c'est un peu surfait.»

Des raisons d'investir à long terme

> La croissance est plus forte que dans les pays développés

Peu endettés, les pays émergents bénéficient d'une population jeune et d'une demande interne vigoureuse, grâce à l'émergence de leur classe moyenne. En 2009, leur économie a beaucoup mieux résisté au ressac mondial. «Et cette année, leur croissance économique devrait atteindre 6%, contre seulement 2% dans les pays développés, et nous croyons que cette tendance est là pour rester», indique Patrice Lemonnier, chef des actions de pays émergents de la société de gestion française Amundi.

> Trop gros pour être ignorés

Les marchés émergents représentent maintenant 60% de la population mondiale, plus de la moitié de l'économie de la planète (en tenant compte de la parité des pouvoirs d'achat) et près de 15% de la valeur boursière mondiale, souligne M. Lemonnier. Bref, les pays émergents sont devenus trop gros pour que les investisseurs les ignorent, dit-il.

De plus en plus d'investisseurs modifient leur répartition d'actifs, pour inclure au moins 15% de pays émergents dans leur portefeuille, soit l'équivalent de leur poids. Au lieu de se comparer à l'indice MSCI Monde qui reflète la performance boursière des développés uniquement, ils utilisent l'indice élargi MSCI ACWI (All countries world index) qui couvre les quatre coins de la planète boursière, y compris les pays émergents.

> L'évaluation boursière demeure raisonnable

Présentement, l'indice MSCI Marchés émergents se négocie autour de 12 fois les bénéfices que devraient réaliser les entreprises au cours des 12 prochains mois. «C'est légèrement en-dessous de la moyenne à long terme, qui est autour de 13 fois les bénéfices», note Pierre Lapointe, stratège Macro Global, chez Brockhouse Cooper, un courtier institutionnel montréalais spécialisé dans les actions internationales.

Même en ajustant à la baisse les prévisions de bénéfices pour tenir compte de leur tendance à long terme, le stratège arrive à la conclusion que les actions des pays émergents ne sont pas surévaluées. «Cela ne signale pas une bulle», dit-il.

Toutefois, les pays émergents ne sont plus une aubaine. «L'écart s'amenuise entre la valorisation boursière des pays émergents et celle des pays développés», indique Jean-Pierre Couture.

Entre 1990 et 2010, le ratio cours-bénéfices dans les pays émergents a été de 13,2 en moyenne, contre 16,7 en moyenne pour le monde. L'écart était de 3,5. Aujourd'hui, le ratio est de 11,6 pour les pays émergents, contre 12,2 pour le monde. L'écart est de seulement 0,6. «On observe rarement un écart aussi mince, souligne M. Couture. Toutefois, un amincissement de cet écart est certainement justifiable compte tenu de la plus grande intégration des pays émergents à l'économie mondiale.»

Des raisons de s'inquiéter à court terme

> Les investisseurs ont pompé beaucoup d'argent

«Du Brésil jusqu'à l'Inde, les pays émergents ont vu débarquer des flots de capitaux étrangers dans leurs marchés financiers, tant du côté des actions que des obligations, au cours des derniers mois», note Pierre Lapointe.

Alors qu'aux États-Unis, les épargnants retirent leur argent des fonds communs d'actions en général, ils ont quand même ajouté des sous dans le créneau des fonds d'actions de pays émergents, qui n'ont jamais été aussi populaires. Or, les tendances de vente dans les fonds communs de placement sont souvent interprétées comme un indicateur contraire.

Selon M. Couture, une autre façon de mesurer l'intérêt des investisseurs pour les marchés émergents est de consulter l'enquête menée auprès de gestionnaires institutionnels (Fund Manager Survey, de Bank of America Merrill Lynch).

En octobre dernier, les professionnels de la gestion étaient très positifs face aux actions des marchés émergents. Près de la moitié avait surpondéré les pays émergents dans leur portefeuille. «Une telle proportion est rarement observée», précise M. Couture.

> La reconstruction des stocks ne sera pas éternelle

Depuis le début de la reprise économique, on a assisté à une reconstruction des stocks des entreprises. Cela explique une grande partie du rebond de la production industrielle dans les pays émergents.

«Là-bas, la production industrielle a dépassé son sommet d'avant la crise, alors que dans les pays industrialisés, elle demeure 10% en dessous du sommet», souligne M. Couture. Les pays émergents ont profité du rebond cyclique qui a suivi la récession. Mais on ne peut pas extrapoler un tel rythme de croissance dans le futur, prévient-il.

> Les Bourses des pays émergents sont plus volatiles

Les Bourses des pays émergents demeurent plus volatiles que celles des pays développés.

D'abord, elles sont plus pesantes en matières premières, dont les prix sont très cycliques. L'énergie et les matériaux comptent pour 28% des Bourses émergentes, contre seulement 17% pour les Bourses des pays développés.

De plus, l'actuelle guerre des devises pourrait créer des situations explosives dans certains marchés émergents. D'une part, les pays comme le Brésil, qui laissent flotter leur devise, sont victimes de leur succès. Les investisseurs étrangers se bousculent pour acheter des obligations qui versent plus de 10% d'intérêt. Cela fait grimper le real, nuisant, du coup, aux exportateurs brésiliens.

D'autre part, les pays comme la Chine, dont le taux de change est fixé au dollar américain, profitent de la dépréciation du billet vert. Leur économie s'en trouve stimulée encore davantage... ce qui fait craindre la surchauffe. D'ailleurs, l'inflation a grimpé à 4,4% en octobre, en Chine, un sommet depuis 25 mois, en raison de la vive croissance du prix des aliments.

Royal Bank of Canada called "too big to fail"

Publie le 10 novembre 2010

Royal Bank of Canada called "too big to fail"8 hours ago by Thomson Reuters


* Financial Times says RBC could face stiffer capital rules

* Canada's biggest bank a growing global presence

* Royal Bank Stock down 1.2 percent

By Cameron French

TORONTO, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Canada shares could be pressured if the bank is labeled "too big to fail", as a media report suggested on Wednesday, but analysts says it is unlikely that RBC would ultimately be at a disadvantage versus its domestic rivals.

Britain's Financial Times newspaper said global financial authorities have included RBC on a list of 20 banks deemed too big to fail, citing sources familiar with the agenda for the G20 meetings in Seoul this week.

This could mean the bank would be subject to stiffer capital requirements as the survival of those biggest banks is seen as key to the health of the global financial industry.

Royal, Canada's biggest bank, has extensive international operations and has been pushing recently to expand its wealth management and wholesale banking operations in Europe.

Any restrictions on its capital requirements above and beyond its domestic rivals would likely hurt its share price, and RBC's stock was down slightly relative to its peers on Wednesday. However, analysts said it is unlikely the bank would be at a long-term disadvantage.

"We believe that the incremental challenge to RBC is not as great as some might initially conclude," Brad Smith, an analyst at Stonecap Securities, said in a note.

He said that regulators are also considering a separate list of banks that would be seen a too big to fail for their domestic markets. For Canada, that would likely involve all of the "big five" banks, and that would mute any disadvantage to Royal, he said.

Other analysts have suggested that Canada's banking regulator would likely act to level the domestic playing field if RBC were singled out.

Superintendent of Financial Institutions Julie Dickson said two weeks ago that she does not believe any Canadian bank should considered too big to fail on a global basis.

Gord Nixon, Chief Executive of RBC, has said the bank should not be singled out from its domestic peers, while Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told the Globe and Mail newspaper on Wednesday he's "not a big fan" of the "too big to fail" label.

The higher capital requirements of a "too big to fail" designation would come on top of stiffer rules already set to be finalized at the G20 meeting. The new regulations are meant to guard against a repeat of the financial crisis.

Canada's big banks, which have traditionally held elevated capital levels compared with their international rivals, have said they can adopt the new rules with little disruption.

A spokeswoman for Royal Bank would not comment on the Financial Times report.

RBC's stock was down 66 Canadian cents, or 1.2 percent, at C$53.74, the weakest performer among domestic banks.

($1=$1.00 Canadian) (Reporting by Cameron French; editing by Rob Wilson)

La Banque Royale fait une acquisition en Asie

Publie le 8 novembre 2010
http://www.journalmetro.com/economie/article/685548--la-banque-royale-fait-une-acquisition-en-asie

HONG-KONG, Chine - La Banque Royale a acquis la firme de gestion de patrimoine Fortis Wealth Management de Hong Kong. Les modalités de la transaction n'ont pas été rendues publiques.

L'entreprise emploie environ 50 personnes.

Cette transaction permet à la RBC d'accroître sa présence en Asie, un marché qu'elle considère comme prioritaire pour sa croissance. Avec ceux de Fortis, la banque y comptera 550 employés.

Plusieurs grandes banques canadiennes ont récemment pris de l'expansion en Chine afin de desservir une classe moyenne en pleine expansion. C'est notamment le cas de BMO.

Verizon Deal Ends Inquiry Over Fees

Publie le 28 octobre 2010
(http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/technology/29fcc.html?ref=verizon_communications_inc

WASHINGTON — Verizon Wireless, the nation’s largest mobile phone carrier, will pay $25 million to end an investigation into complaints that it had charged 15 million cellphone customers unauthorized data fees over the last three years, the Federal Communications Commission announced Thursday.

Verizon announced this month that it intended to refund money to its customers for the unauthorized charges. Under a consent decree with the F.C.C. announced Thursday, the company also will pay a minimum of $52.8 million in refunds.

The $25 million settlement is the largest payment under a consent decree in the F.C.C’s history, said Michele Ellison, chief of the agency’s enforcement bureau.

“Today’s settlement requires Verizon Wireless to make meaningful business reforms, prevent future overcharges and provide consumers clear, easy-to-understand information about their choices,” Ms. Ellison said. “I am gratified by the cooperation of the Verizon Wireless team in the face of these issues and pleased they are taking the high road.”

In a statement, Verizon said: “We are a company that listens to its customers and in this case we got to the bottom of a problem and resolved the errors. We have taken this action because it is the right thing to do.”

The long road to the settlement began in November 2007, when customers first started experiencing and then complaining about mysterious $1.99 charges on their monthly phone bills for data sessions that they had not initiated.

The F.C.C. said it started investigating last January after a large number of customer complaints about the charges and after reports in 2009 in The Plain Dealer of Cleveland and The New York Times.

The charges affected customers with a “pay as you go” plan for data or Internet access. Verizon said the “vast majority” of the erroneous charges were incurred when software that was preloaded on some phones automatically contacted Verizon’s data service in what the company called an “acknowledgment” session.

Verizon said that in September 2009 it put in place a feature to limit those inadvertent charges. In addition, the company said it had sometimes accidentally charged customers for access to Web sites through links that were not supposed to lead to data charges. Many customers complained that if they had accidentally hit a wrong button on their flip phones, they would be connected to the Internet and charged a $1.99 fee.

The F.C.C. required and Verizon agreed to take steps to prevent such charges in the future. The company said those steps included software changes to remove automatic acknowledgments between Verizon data centers and phones, and new internal controls that would prevent charges when customers accessed free Web site links. In addition, the company will put in place a data charge task force to monitor and resolve complaints. The task force must report regularly to the F.C.C.

The F.C.C. and Verizon also agreed that the company would initiate customer service improvements, including clearer explanations of its pay-as-you-go data charges and ways for customers to avoid extra charges; an online video tutorial to help consumers understand their bills; and additional training for Verizon customer representatives on pay-as-you-go plans.

Verizon has begun notifying customers eligible for refunds, and it will apply credits or, in the case of former customers, mail checks for the refund amounts in October and November. Most of the credits range from $2 to $6, Verizon said. About 77 million of its customers, or roughly five out of six, are unaffected, the company said.

Customers who do not receive a refund but believe they had unauthorized data charges can appeal and receive a resolution within 30 days, the F.C.C. said.

Julius Genachowski, the F.C.C. chairman, said the settlement “will serve as a significant deterrent to others in the future.”

Mr. Genachowski added: “Today’s consent decree sends a clear message to American consumers — the F.C.C. has got your back. People shouldn’t find mystery fees when they open their phone bills, and they certainly shouldn’t have to pay for services they didn’t want and didn’t use. In these rough economic times, every $1.99 counts.”

Will the Verizon iPhone Cripple Verizon?

Publie le 3 novembre 2010
(http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/03/will-the-verizon-iphone-cripple-verizon/?ref=verizon_communications_inc

We’ve all heard that adage “be careful what you wish for,” but could this be the case with the highly anticipated Verizon iPhone?

People have been waiting for this “dream phone” since the iPhone was introduced in 2007. Now it seems likely to arrive early next year.

But what if mobile customers’ dreams come true and this fabled device appears? Could an influx of AT&T refugees and new customers cripple the robust Verizon network?

Verizon might not think so.

Although the company emphatically declined to comment about the possibility of a Verizon iPhone, Jeffrey Nelson, executive director for corporate communications at Verizon Wireless, said the company’s network was “tried and true.”

“Some analysts suggest that we already carry significantly more data on our network than AT&T,” he said, noting that Verizon Wireless has a high number of wireless data cards for laptops on its network. “We built our network for reliability. It is our DNA, it is our brand — anything we do, or don’t do, in the future, will ensure a good customer experience.”

“Many people wonder if customers will be disappointed. Time will tell.”

— AT&T representative

When asked if AT&T worries that customers will leave in droves for the Verizon network, a spokesman said: “We expect when Verizon’s network finally improves on speeds and critical capabilities customers want — like talk and surf — their network will be tested.”

“Many people wonder if customers will be disappointed. Time will tell,” he said.

Charles Golvin, principal mobile analyst at Forrester Research, doesn’t believe the Verizon network will crumble under the weight of the iPhone. But he said this wasn’t because Verizon had a better infrastructure or service. Instead, he said, it’s a matter of timing.

“If Verizon were the first mobile company to carry the iPhone several years ago, they would have suffered the same problems as AT&T,” Mr. Golvin said, adding that no one in the mobile industry knew how customers would use the Apple phone. “Now both companies have learned about the habits of smartphone customers, and Verizon will be ready to allocate their resources accordingly.”

AT&T might not see a mass exodus of its customers deserting its network, as some may take a wait-and-see approach, and a number of customers are locked in to long contracts. According to the the company’s latest 10-Q filings, AT&T has 11.1 million active iPhone customers, 5.2 million of whom signed new two-year contracts in the third quarter of this year.

Mr. Golvin also pointed out that it might not be AT&T that should worry about mass abandonment, but other wireless carriers like Sprint and T-Mobile.

“There will probably be a pretty hefty migration from Sprint and T-Mobile from customers who have not wanted to switch to AT&T in the past due to service problems, but will happily switch to Verizon because it has such good record,” he said.